Japan will announce its new FIT rates sometime in March and it will become effective April 1, 2014.
And the policy change may affect the growth of the Japanese PV market, according to Renewable Energy World (REW). To re-cap, the current support from the government on residential in terms of rebate and feed-in tariff (FIT) programs, has made Japan one of the world's top markets.
End of residential PV program?
The national residential PV subsidy program which started 20 years ago will be ended. When the program closes its door in March 2014, it is expected to have solarized over 1.5 million residential roofs, or added about 6 GW-worth of PV capacity, in Japan.
Japan initiated solar technology R&D and field testing under the "Sun Shine Project" in the 1970s. The Project was to bring a safe, stable energy supply to the nation. As part of the Sun Shine Project, the government launched the Residential PV System Dissemination Program in 1994.
REW reported that during the first 10 years of Japan residential PV program, it dominated the world PV market in terms of both installation and production. The average residential PV system cost was greatly reduced to ¥661 per watt even with an incentive rate of just ¥20 per watt (or 3% of the system cost)
The residential incentive was stopped in 2005 and the domestic market declined. So, in 2009 the federal government brought back the residential PV incentive program with an incentive rate of ¥70 per watt. The domestic PV market was revitalized and Japan celebrated its one million solar-roof installations in April 2012.
Focus on large non-residential segment
Japan shifted its focus from the traditional residential segment to the non-residential segment with the launch of the national FIT program in July 2012. The national government believed that deploying the larger, non-residential segment was a quick way to expand the national PV market and to catch up with Germany and Italy.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) approved close to 25 GW worth of PV systems under the FIT program between July 2012 and October 2013. Systems sized over 1 MW represented about 60% of the approved systems.
The agency mandated project status reports to FIT applicants who reserved the FY2012 FIT rate (¥42/kWh) between April 2012 and March 2013 for a system sized over 400 kW. Out of 13.3 GW (or 4,699 systems), METI found that only 8% of the FIT-approved PV capacity has become operational as of this January. In fact, 4.7 GW worth of the approved projects have neither selected a site nor placed a purchase order for the equipment.
What about delayed projects?
METI announced that it will disqualify uncommitted projects from the FIT program. For example, the projects that are categorized as "neither site decided nor system purchased" will be delisted if they fail to show proof of valid millstones by this March and the projects categories as "either side decided or system purchased" will be disqualified unless they commit both site selection and system purchase by the end of this August.
Cost of system by size: The average installed cost of systems greater than 1 MW increased to ¥305 per watt in the fourth quarter of 2013 from ¥280 per watt in the same quarter in 2012
FIT for FY2014
METI will decide on new FIT rates, which would take effect April 1, 2014. There is a rumor circulating among PV project developers that projects can be disqualified unless a system purchase or installation order is placed within six months of the date of the FIT application approval notice.
Japan is also considering toughening the FIT application approval process and imposing time restrictions to weed out bad applicants.
TheGreenMechanics' two cents:
During a recent solar PV presentation session by one of the local PV project developers/implementers, we learnt that similar cases of delayed or cancelled projects are also happening in Malaysia. If that is the case, there should be a mechanism to eradicate non-genuine applicants from the electronic balloting system.
Genuine applicants with financial capability that sit low in the pecking order (Malaysia's balloting for quota is on first-come-first-served basis) should move up priority ladder automatically as soon as the 'returned' quota is released by SEDA.
Note: This is an excerpt from a long article in REW magazine published on Feb. 20, 2014 and if you want to read the full report, you can do so here.
And the policy change may affect the growth of the Japanese PV market, according to Renewable Energy World (REW). To re-cap, the current support from the government on residential in terms of rebate and feed-in tariff (FIT) programs, has made Japan one of the world's top markets.
End of residential PV program?
The national residential PV subsidy program which started 20 years ago will be ended. When the program closes its door in March 2014, it is expected to have solarized over 1.5 million residential roofs, or added about 6 GW-worth of PV capacity, in Japan.
Japan's residential PV installation from 1994 - 2013. Source: REW
Japan initiated solar technology R&D and field testing under the "Sun Shine Project" in the 1970s. The Project was to bring a safe, stable energy supply to the nation. As part of the Sun Shine Project, the government launched the Residential PV System Dissemination Program in 1994.
REW reported that during the first 10 years of Japan residential PV program, it dominated the world PV market in terms of both installation and production. The average residential PV system cost was greatly reduced to ¥661 per watt even with an incentive rate of just ¥20 per watt (or 3% of the system cost)
The residential incentive was stopped in 2005 and the domestic market declined. So, in 2009 the federal government brought back the residential PV incentive program with an incentive rate of ¥70 per watt. The domestic PV market was revitalized and Japan celebrated its one million solar-roof installations in April 2012.
Focus on large non-residential segment
Japan shifted its focus from the traditional residential segment to the non-residential segment with the launch of the national FIT program in July 2012. The national government believed that deploying the larger, non-residential segment was a quick way to expand the national PV market and to catch up with Germany and Italy.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) approved close to 25 GW worth of PV systems under the FIT program between July 2012 and October 2013. Systems sized over 1 MW represented about 60% of the approved systems.
The agency mandated project status reports to FIT applicants who reserved the FY2012 FIT rate (¥42/kWh) between April 2012 and March 2013 for a system sized over 400 kW. Out of 13.3 GW (or 4,699 systems), METI found that only 8% of the FIT-approved PV capacity has become operational as of this January. In fact, 4.7 GW worth of the approved projects have neither selected a site nor placed a purchase order for the equipment.
Project Status
|
No. of System
|
GW
| |
Operational
|
1,049
|
1.1
| |
Withdrawn
|
419
|
0.9
| |
Not operational
|
Site decided and system purchased
|
1,588
|
3.9
|
Either site decided or system purchased
|
784
|
2.6
| |
Neither site decided nor system purchased
|
758
|
4.7
| |
Not responded
|
101
|
0.2
| |
Total
|
4,699
|
13.3
| |
Table: METI Fiscal Year 2012 FIT PV Project Survey
What about delayed projects?
METI announced that it will disqualify uncommitted projects from the FIT program. For example, the projects that are categorized as "neither site decided nor system purchased" will be delisted if they fail to show proof of valid millstones by this March and the projects categories as "either side decided or system purchased" will be disqualified unless they commit both site selection and system purchase by the end of this August.
FIT for FY2014
METI will decide on new FIT rates, which would take effect April 1, 2014. There is a rumor circulating among PV project developers that projects can be disqualified unless a system purchase or installation order is placed within six months of the date of the FIT application approval notice.
Japan is also considering toughening the FIT application approval process and imposing time restrictions to weed out bad applicants.
TheGreenMechanics' two cents:
During a recent solar PV presentation session by one of the local PV project developers/implementers, we learnt that similar cases of delayed or cancelled projects are also happening in Malaysia. If that is the case, there should be a mechanism to eradicate non-genuine applicants from the electronic balloting system.
Genuine applicants with financial capability that sit low in the pecking order (Malaysia's balloting for quota is on first-come-first-served basis) should move up priority ladder automatically as soon as the 'returned' quota is released by SEDA.
Note: This is an excerpt from a long article in REW magazine published on Feb. 20, 2014 and if you want to read the full report, you can do so here.
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