Kick Start Your 2021 with the NEM 3.0

Happy new year. 

Probably it's not too late to wish you a fruitful 2021 after seeing 2020 busted everyone's expectation with the Covid-19 pandemic. It just reiterate the belief that "a man's plan is not God's".

I was browsing through previous postings and one article popped up as I searched for 'Malaysia solar PV 2020'. In 2017, it mentioned that solar PV industry will generate RM70 billion and 50,000 jobs.

Of course it's obvious that this expectation was no where near achievement due to the 2020 being a year ravaged by cov coupled with the tussle for power.

2021 For Malaysia

Year 2021 looks promising though, with the introduction of NEM 3.0 programme. NEM3.0 consist of:

i) NEM Rakyat (domestic), 

ii) NEM GoMEn (Government Ministries and Entities), and 

iii) NOVA programme (Net Offset Virtual Aggregation).

I was particularly interested with the Program NEM Rakyat after missing out on the previous Feed-in Tariff for domestic consumers. NEM Rakyat is aimed at benefitting the domestic end users, maintaining the existing concept of “one-to-one” offset rate. Total allocated  quota is 100 MW.

It is a shame that NEM Rakyat is only available in Peninsula Malaysia for consumers of TNB.

Why not make it available in Sabah?

Global Photovoltaic Inverter landscape 2013

Increase in sales of inverter is one of the good indicators of the industry performance - from residential installations up to utility-scale PV projects.

According to a report by GTM Research, by 2016, PV inverter prices will by pushed down from a global blended average of $0.22 per watt in 2012 to just $0.14 per watt in 2016. This is a compound annual reduction of 10%.

Global PV inverter shipments by Inverter Size, 2011-2016E (GTMResearch)

What is PV inverter

Solar inverter, or PV inverter, converts the variable direct current (DC) output of a photovoltaic (PV) solar panel into a utility frequency alternating current (AC) that can be fed into the electrical grid.

Slower growth in Europe but fast in Asia and the US

GTM Research says that global PV demand is expanding to markets in China, India, Southeast Asia, South America and regions of Africa.

This expansion of global demand will lead to increased competition and slower growth for EU-based inverter incumbents who do not diversify from their domestic base. At the same time, this expansion is providing new supply opportunities to US- and Asia-based inverter manufacturers and to global energy conglomerates.

Top 10 competitively positioned PV Inverter companies, according to the report:-

1. SMA
2. Power-One
3. Schneider Electric
4. SunGrow
5. Advanced Energy (REFUsol)
6. ABB
7. TMEIC
8. KACO New Energy
9. Chint Power
10. Fronius

"While SMA continues to dominate the rankings, near-term growth will be challenging as it competes with new low-cost or well-capitalized suppliers. Even so, unseating SMA and achieving success globally will not be easy despite a fragmented landscape."
- MJ Shiao, Senior Analyst at GTM Research

TheGreenMechanics: Thumbs up! Competition can only lead to one thing - efficiency.

Latin America and Caribbean PV demand growing 45% annually to 2017

Despite all the bad news - solar companies winding up, unrealistic subsidies in China, etc - the demand for solar PV energy in other parts of the world is expected to grow at explosive growth.

Now that is optimistic but given the current momentum, and the benefits of going into renewable energy, this idea should be supported. Latin America reminds me of the initiative by the Brazil government to power up its stadiums used to stage the football 2014 World Cup, using solar photovoltaic.

Source: NPD Solarbuzz

Solarbuzz reported that demand for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy across Latin America and the Caribbean is poised for explosive growth through 2017, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45%, according to the new NPD Solarbuzz Emerging PV Markets Report: Latin America & Caribbean.

Historically, PV demand was confined to rural off-grid and niche applications, but new renewable energy policies and incentive programs are now opening up the region for strong PV deployment. Set against a backdrop of strong economic growth, expanding energy demand, and increasing electricity prices, the conditions for PV adoption appear particularly attractive.

Mexico, Chile, and Brazil are emerging as market leaders within the region, driven by a combination of net-metering, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), and other policies. These three countries are forecast to have almost 70% of PV demand within the region by 2017.

By the end of 2012, energy regulators across the region will have received PV project applications in excess of 6 gigawatts (GW), stimulating a healthy pipeline of new opportunities for PV component suppliers, developers and installers.

Chris Sunsong of NPD Solarbuzz:

“Electricity subsidies in Mexico and low natural gas prices in Peru are also delaying the onset of PV grid-parity for some end-user categories, while import tariffs across the region are keeping PV system costs on the high side.”

Other interesting topic related to this article:

1) Solar PV powers the 2014 World Cup in Brazil
2)Renewable Energy: Work on Belo Monte dam in the Amazon

Poorly made PV modules hurting Solar PV industry?

If you are producing, say, Chevrolet vehicles, do you accept a one-in-every-100 defective cars or 1% defect rate? I bet not.

Renewable Energy World (REW) stated in its recent article that from a factory checks carried out, solar panels defect rate stands at 8.8% on average. That is almost one in every ten panels!

The checks are done immediately after the panels roll out of the plants and the spread is from 5.5% to 22%.  That is a very bad and worrying defect trend. As if 5.5% isn't bad enough, it is amazing that some manufacturers continue to produce panels at 22% defect rate! How is that possible, and how is that profitable?

Image: french.alibaba.com

This is tarnishing the reputation of one of the most exciting and interesting sources of renewable energy - Solar Power.

REW reported the common source of failures which include:

1) The use of substandard materials for:

• metal contact lines,
• backsheets and encapsulants for protecting panel from UV radiation,
• encapsulants for protection from other environmental damage,
• cable insulators.

2) Poor workmanship during the soldering process when connecting the cells together inside a panel.


Who will be on the losing end?

Common sense tells us that it does not require a second fault to discourage people from buying the same product. One failure is good enough (or bad enough, in this context) to keep a keen-head away from an uncharted territory. And solar PV industry is still 'uncharted' business venture until today.

Remember, people are still trying to chart the business model of solar PV and there's no curve yet that is acceptable to the majority.

So, not only the buyers (enterprises or individuals) will shy away from investing, but the industry as a whole will suffer. Financing will become harder to come by, and the only driving factor to push Solar PV forward is politics. Governments are forced to enforce unrealistic FIT schemes for a short term sustenance and it will become very expensive to maintain.


Where is my 20-year warranty on Solar Panel?

Until such time that corner-cuttings and the unrealistic governmental supports to every-tom-dick-and-harry manufacturers come to an end, we will continue to have a lot of 5-year rather than 20-year warranted panels.

On the same token we can ask our Malaysia Government on the currently on-going Solar-hybrid power supply for the rural folks. It is a known fact that many of the solar PV systems (hybrid or stand-alone) fail after only few years in operation. Was this due to poor maintenance or as a result of lousy solar panels/components?


Read the article by REW and the interesting discussion by industry players here.

PV Module Consolidation in 2013-2014?

The PV manufacturing sector has seen sustained profits and stable growth for several years now.

However, research shows that it is now in the state of overcapacity and most solar PV producers are facing difficulty trying to balance their accounts. GTM Research thinks that much more consolidation is on the way, and that the global PV module landscape is headed for a significant transformation.

Some of clear indicators of this are - plant closures, market exits and insolvencies in the past year and a half.

Figure 1: PV module supply capacity versus global installation. Image: GTM


What can we expect:

Below, I share with you what GTM envision to play out over the course of the next 2 years:

1. Market exit or plant closure will continue to happen to firms with facilities in high-cost locations such as in Western Europe and the U.S. By 2015, module facilities in high-cost locations are expected to make up just 9% of global capacity, compared to 32% in 2009.

2. By 2014, it is expected that thin film will make up less than 5% of global module capacity, compared to 19% in 2009. Three suppliers - Hanergy, Solar Frontier, and First Solar - will make up 92% of the installed thin film base.

3. Aggressive downstream build-out in China: The large pure-play firms and diversified firms are likely to be awarded with module supply or EPC contracts for several large, multi-hundred-megawatt projects on account of their workforce and government connections.

4. Some of the struggling Pure-play Chinese firms will receive additional debt from domestic Lenders to allow them to service their near-term debt obligations, stay solvent, and maintain employment.

5. Large Chinese firms will continue to acquire European module companies. We have seen Asian firms acquiring established but embattled European module suppliers such as Sunways, Scheuten, Q-Cells and Solon. This trend is expected to continue.

6. Some Pure-play Chinese firms could be acquired by State-owned Chinese firms. There are natural synergies to be gained from the acquisition of certain pure-play Chinese solar firms by larger diversified Chinese firms.

7. Rather than allowing “zombie companies” in China to go insolvent, banks are forced to continue lending money to failed businesses far past the point where they demonstrate any ability to repay the debts

8. Larger diversified firms (such as LG, Samsung, AU Optronics, Sharp, Panasonic, Bosch, and Saint-Gobain) could be forced to exit the market. They need to decide whether to cut their losses, or to continue to compete by differentiating substantially and aggressively in terms of their product or business model.


Well the solar PV can be unpredictable and in 5 years' time these expectation may not be even relevant. But we'll see.

GTM - Green Tech Media
You can read the full report here.

Solar-powered car in the future?

275W x 8 = 2.2 kWp system? Possible.

Australia's A$450 million solar PV project

Australia will go ahead with a large-scale solar PV project in New South Wales state to be undertaken by solar panel manufacturing giant First Solar, and gas retailer AGL Energy.

One of First Solar's projects. Image: First Solar Inc.

Australian federal government awarded a $130 million grant to AGL Energy and First Solar to build the 159 MW grid connected solar power stations. The A$450million (US$446 mil) renewable energy project will be built at two sites - Broken Hill and Nyngan.

Brief description of the project


Locations : Broken Hill and Nyngan in New South Wales
Generating capacity: 159 MW
Electricity sufficient for: 30,000 homes
Cost : A$450 million
Completion : end-2015
Job created by the project: 150 jobs in Broken Hill & up to 300 in Nyngan


Sydney Morning Herald reported that Energy Minister Martin Ferguson reopened first-round bidding in February after the consortium behind the initial winner - the Moree Solar Farm - proposed major changes to its project and failed to meet a December deadline to secure financial backing.

Mr Ferguson on Saturday (June 9) said the 159 megawatt project in Broken Hill and Nyngan represented excellent value for money and would ensure Australia brought industrial-scale solar power to market. The energy minister said a rigorous assessment process by the independent Solar Flagships Council found the AGL-First Solar bid had the highest level of merit overall "representing value-for-money, low risk and high commercial viability".

"At the end of the day it all comes down to cost and if large scale solar is going to succeed in Australia it has to be cost competitive," Mr Ferguson said in a statement.

But he noted all short-listed applicants, including the Moree Solar Farm, TRUenergy and Infigen-Suntech bids, were of "high merit" and would be referred to the new Australian Renewable Energy Agency for future funding consideration.


TheGreenMechanics' two cents on Malaysian scenario

Great move by Australia. Remember this country is one of the major producers of the 'dirty' coal and in terms of consumption it is in the top ten countries.

Australia made the move to spend more in producing energy from cleaner source. They are focused towards becoming 'net user' compared to Malaysia which seems to be aiming at becoming major producer of the solar panel itself.

First Solar has solar PV manufacturing plant in Kedah, Malaysia but has since scaled back production due to deteriorating demand in European market. I think we should increase solar panel usage domestically rather than depending too much on export. Get the state governments to contribute to the FIT fund coffer and revise the quota for both individual and non-individual rooftop/solar farm installations.

Create domestic market for panels you produce locally. What message are you sending to the world when you produce a lot of panels but you yourself don't use them?

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/450m-solar-project-for-outback-nsw-20120609-202cd.html